In 2024, more than 60 elections took place worldwide, prompting Pew Research Center to describe it as “a year of political disruption.”
In an analysis, Pew highlighted a few key electoral trends in shaping the political landscape across the globe.
Surge and endurance of right-wing populism
Over the past decade, right-wing populist movements have gained significant traction in the United States and Europe, causing major shifts in political dynamics. This trend continued in 2024 as populist parties solidified their presence and influence in various countries.
United States
In the United States, former President Donald Trump triumphed over Vice President Kamala Harris in a high-profile election, further consolidating the populist “Make America Great Again” movement within the Republican Party. This shift has sidelined long-standing Republican figures like Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney in favor of a more nationalist agenda.
The party’s recent electoral victories also mean that Republicans will soon hold all three branches of government: executive, judicial, and legislative. Additionally, Trump’s three Supreme Court appointments from his first term have helped shape its ideological makeup, with the possibility of more appointments in his second term.
France
In France, parties from the left and center joined forces in an attempt to prevent Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, a right-wing populist party, from gaining power. Nevertheless, Le Pen’s party significantly expanded its presence in the National Assembly. In December, the National Rally allied with the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, to oust conservative Prime Minister Michel Barnier after only three months in office.
Austria
Austria witnessed the far-right Freedom Party secure 29% of the vote in September’s elections, resulting in its best-ever performance and surpassing all other parties.
Portugal
In Portugal, the right-wing Chega party emerged as a significant political force. After winning 50 seats in the March elections—up from just 12 in 2022 and one in 2019—Portugal has been added to the list of European countries with a rising right-wing presence.
Incumbents are unseated in a post-pandemic world
According to the International IDEA, 16 elections in 2024 resulted in party turnover, a 32% rate of change that signals a global trend of unseating incumbents. Economic challenges played a key role in these electoral shifts, with voters in many countries citing economic issues as their primary concern. This was particularly evident in the United States, where the economy was a central issue for voters, especially among Trump supporters.
United States
In one of the most high-profile elections of the year, Trump defeated Harris and clinched his second term as president. This marked the third consecutive U.S. presidential election in which the incumbent party lost. Republicans also secured majorities in both houses of Congress.
United Kingdom
In contrast to the United States, the United Kingdom saw a shift to the left, with the Labour Party securing a landslide victory. This ended 14 years of Conservative Party rule and brought about a major political change.
South Korea
In South Korea, the opposition Democratic Party won a majority in the National Assembly in April, effectively checking the power of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s People Power Party. In December, Yoon imposed martial law, accusing Democratic Party leaders of anti-state activities, but the National Assembly swiftly voted to overturn the decision.
Botswana
Botswana’s general election in October marked the end of nearly 58 years of uninterrupted rule by the Democratic Party. The opposition coalition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) won a majority of the seats in parliament. President Mokgweetsi Masisi of the Democratic Party conceded defeat and committed to supporting the transition to a UDC government led by Duma Boko.
Battle of progress vs. tradition with migration at the center
Pew noted that “the spread of populism has coincided with deepening political divides over culture and identity in many nations,” which was evident as several leaders used a nationalist approach to sway their populace to victory.
In France, Le Pen and National Rally frequently argue that French culture and civilization must be protected from immigration, particularly from Muslim-majority countries.
Similar rhetoric was common among Austria’s Freedom Party, Germany’s Alternative for Germany, the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom, and Italy’s Brothers of Italy, all of which frame immigration as a threat to national identity and put it at the center of their campaigns.
Austria’s Freedom Party positioned itself against LGBTQ+ rights, advocating for a constitutional recognition of only two genders and opposing same-sex relationships. These issues were prominent in other 2024 elections as well, reflecting a broader cultural and ideological clash between tradition and progress.
A 2022 Pew survey asked respondents whether they believed that their country would be better off in the future by sticking to its traditions or by embracing changes to those traditions. In 15 of the 16 countries surveyed, there was a notable ideological gap between the right and left. The largest divide was in the United States, where 91% of liberals believed the country would be better off embracing change, compared to just 28% of conservatives.
The United States has especially deep ideological divides, as consistent polling has shown—particularly on the issues of abortion and climate change. And this polarization has grown in past decades, as multiple layers of identity—including race, religion, and ideology—have become increasingly aligned with partisan affiliation.
This has led to identity-based conflicts, with each side of the political spectrum holding what seems like irreconcilable views on what it means to be an American.
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