Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, a significant population shift has been underway, led chiefly by millennials and Gen Z Americans who are moving from urban to rural areas. This could spell trouble for the Democratic Party, which has historically depended on voters in dense and progressive cities and states.
As the populations in states like California, New York, and Illinois decline, these once-solidly blue states could face an existential crisis as they are no longer the reliable powerhouses they once were. Meanwhile, conservative southern states like Texas and Florida are gaining new residents. This could dramatically shift the balance of political power, making blue states less competitive and red states more influential.
According to data from the Brennan Center for Justice, if these migration patterns continue through the 2030 Census, California will lose four Congressional seats and New York will lose two. In total, states that went to Kamala Harris in 2024 could lose a dozen House seats and Electoral College votes, making the path for Democrats even more difficult.
Migration will hemorrhage Democratic voters until it reaches critical mass
The concept of critical mass theory is that collective political action requires a “critical number of personnel needed to affect policy and make a change not as the token but as an influential body.”
It’s no secret that rural areas tend to be red, while urban areas are typically blue. The migration trend, while unsettling for Democrats, isn’t all bad news. If it continues, the party could have an opportunity to reshape these growing, historically conservative regions into states in play.
But this won’t happen overnight.
First, Democrats might experience a significant loss of voters in blue states as people migrate to red states. Only after reaching a “critical mass” of voters in these conservative areas will Democrats have the chance to make an impact.
However, parties can’t base their fundraising and strategies on wait-and-sees. Right now, Democrats are looking at North Carolina and, yes, even Texas, where there was a close Senate race in 2024—with Colin Allred losing by less than a million votes to Ted Cruz—to build a platform on the economic issues that got Donald Trump his populist base.
As time passes and migration patterns continue, baby boomers will give way to a new generation of rural voters who Democrats could sweep up. But it would be a mistake to ignore the issues that impact the majority of Americans now, like student debt, sky-high housing prices, the climate crisis, and expensive health care.
There are many reasons why people migrate. The pandemic caused a boom in remote work that, combined with rising rental costs in cities, made it easier for people to relocate to more affordable rural areas. Trends like “cottage core” and “trad wife” that have become popular among millennials and Gen Z have idealized homesteads and rural living. Some might argue that the great migration is simply a result of an overworked, exhausted, and disillusioned generation of Americans who want to quit the rat race.
Migration could also be due, in part, to the drastic changes in cities as a result of the pandemic. What was once a bustling nightlife scene has given way to shuttered small businesses, leading to a more solitary lifestyle. Similarly, as rents increase, young people are priced out of homeownership, and wages don’t keep up, people are opting to live in places where they can get more for their money.
Democrats haven’t achieved a significant victory in the South since former President Jimmy Carter in the early 1970s. Meanwhile, the GOP staked out the long game, successfully implementing its southern strategy and winning all of those states in 2024.
Even before its defeat in November, the Democratic Party recalibrated, adhering to its loss of the South and instead focusing on trying to win the Midwest’s “Blue Wall”—Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
But as the electorate has shifted, it’s no longer enough to win the White House without the support of some southern states.
How will the party that is redlining itself reclaim rural voters, especially ones in the South who’ve gone devout MAGA? And will these migration trends solidify Democrats’ decline in traditionally blue states, or will they become an opportunity to shift the political landscape in red states?
The answers are still unknown, but how the Democratic Party adapts to these population changes will determine where it goes from here.
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