Democrats on Tuesday flipped an Iowa state Senate seat in a district Donald Trump carried by 21 percentage points just a few months earlier, an incredible special election result that may serve as an early warning signal for Republicans about the 2026 midterms.
Democrat Mike Zimmer defeated Republican Kate Whittington, 52% to 48%, in a special election for Senate District 35—a rural seat located on the state’s eastern side.
In November 2022, Republican Chris Cournoyer defeated her Democratic opponent, 61% to 39%, in this same seat—making Zimmer’s win a massive shift toward Democrats. (Cournoyer resigned the seat to become Iowa’s lieutenant governor, creating the vacancy.)
Zimmer’s win should give Republicans a case of heartburn since special election results often correlate with the outcome in the next midterm election.
Democrat Mike Zimmer
Democrats saw a similar overperformance in special elections in 2017, after Trump took office the first time. Those special election victories turned out to be the precursor to Democrats taking back the U.S. House and winning big in state-legislative races in 2018.
“This earthquake victory in Iowa puts Republicans across the country on notice,” Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “In a ruby red district that Trump won by 21 points, DLCC candidate Mike Zimmer clinched a comfortable win against his extreme MAGA opponent. Tonight’s win marks the first flip of the cycle and builds on key majority-making wins in Virginia earlier this month. The DLCC is starting the new cycle strong just a month into 2025—from battlegrounds to Republican territory. We have dozens more special elections on the horizon—we’re only just getting started.”
It wasn’t just Zimmer who overperformed in a special election on Tuesday.
In Minnesota, Democrats won a state Senate district by a 91%-to-9% margin to win a majority in the chamber. In November, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried this same district, with 83% to Trump’s 14%—making Tuesday’s results a sizable swing toward Democrats, according to data from the Downballot.
Ultimately, Zimmer’s performance also gives Democrats hope in upcoming congressional special elections.
Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York is expected to leave her seat to be Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, and her district’s partisanship is similar to that of the Iowa state Senate seat Democrats just won.
“Democrats just flipped a Trump +21 Iowa state Senate seat in the first special election since Trump assumed office. Of note: New York’s 21st District, which Elise Stefanik is vacating soon, was also Trump +21 in 2024,” Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of the election-analysis outlet Inside Elections, wrote in a post on X.
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