Poor rain in rainfall areas can affect the production of the farm | Photo credit: KK Mustafah
The meteorological departments of India (IMD) recent prognosis of a southwest monsoon of South West (SWM) above normal is well affirmed by the Kharif harvest. If the 105 percent projection of the long period of 87 cm is correct (it does, more than not), it would mark the second consecutive year of the SWM precipitation above normal. Looking back in last year, IMD review in October 2024 of the SWM estimated the rain from June to September with 108 percent of the LPA. The favorable rain of the season also has a healthy effect on Rabi crops. It is not surprising that the growth in agriculture GVA was a healthy 4.6 percent for fiscal year 2015. However, for monsoon forecasts to benefit all crops and regions, projections should improve at the district or Taluk level.
The localized forecasts have become important, given the great spatial and temporal variations in the rain. A document from the Bank of the India Reserve of March 2025 on agriculture and the Monzones observes that in 2024, the SWM was normal in 304 districts against 350 in 2023, deficient in 148 (212) and excessive in 220 (110). At the same time, 59 districts that resorted to normal rains in 2023 were deficient in 2024. A similar pattern would be true for other years, with deviations from the average of being high. Therefore, a wide prognosis of the monsoon above normal can mask pockets or deficit or excessive rain. If the rain is deficient in regions that are largely rain (50 percent or cultivated area), a pronounced impact on crops could, even in just a few pockets. This, however, could have a huge effect on prices. This has been observed in the case of so -called upper crops (tomato, onion, potato) in particular, in addition to pulses and oleaginous seeds. Therefore, researchers have observed a reasonably strong bond between rain and the general agricultural GVA, but less between good rains and food inflation.
The mid -season and short -range IMD forecasts must improve more, so the monsoon days are characterized by erratic and more intense rain spells. This is easier to say that in times of global warming, when ocean currents such as the child, the Nina and the Dipolo of the Indian Ocean and their interaction have become more difficult to predict. The October IMD review shows how its months is estimated (June to September) varied from the standard.
However, technology and innovation have shown a path to follow. The Minister of State for Earth Sciences, Jitendra Singh, informed Lok Sabha (March 12) that the Ministry established an IA/ML center at the Tropical Meteorology Institute, Pune. These could sharpen the “short -range precipitation forecasts.” The new companies are using AI/ML in the weather data at the district level to predict rain and heat in smaller regions. Meanwhile, ICrisat has launched a health indicator of the AI/ml plant, an effort that can be placed with the emerging meteorological companies. The weather forecast should become a collaborative ecosystem. This will help anticipate contingencies, while maximizing opportunities on the basis of valuable information.
Posted on April 18, 2025