The dollar index is struggling to rise again above the psychological brand of 100. That is very clear about the price action during the past week. It also keeps the green cover vulnerable to the fall more in the next few days. Meanwhile, Indian rupee recovered well last week with our expectations. A moderate dollar helped the rupee gain ground.
The United States treasure yields have also dropped, giving some of the profits obtained in the previous week. In general, the image is still weak for the dollar index.
Index perspective
The dollar index (99.23) remains bassist. The region between 100 and 100.50 acts as a strong resistance and limits the advantage very well. That keeps our initial bearish vision intact falling to 98.50. A break below 98.50 can drag the dollar index at 96 in the medium term.
Strong rest is needed above 100.50 to relieve the pressure of the disadvantage. That will activate a corrective increase to 102-102.50. However, the bearish trend will persist. To obtain a reversal of trends, the dollar index has to violate 102.50. But that seems unlikely at this time.
Mixed yields
The 10 -year Treasury yield performance. UU. (4.32 percent) dropped last week. This was contrary to our expectation of seeing an increase. The immediate perspective is mixed. The support is 4.2 percent and the resistance is 4.4 percent. A break on both sides of 4.2-4.4 percent will determine the following movement.
A break below 4.2 percent can drag the yield at 4.1-4.0 percent. On the other hand, a break above 4.4 percent will be optimistic to see 4.7 percent initially and then 4.85 percent anyway.
Alcista Euro
The euro (euusend: 1.1393) fixes them to stay above 11250. He thought the daily graphic indicates a range, the weekly table looks optimistic. The euro can rise to 1.16 initially. A break above 1.16 will increase the bullish impulse and take the currency up to 1.20 in the coming months.
A drop at 1,1150 will enter the scene only if the euro decreases below the support in 11250.
RUPIA forecast
The Indian rupee (Usdinr: 85.38) witnessed a strong recovery last week. The national currency broke the resistance at 85.85 and rose to a maximum or 85.35. He has closed the week at 85.38. The view is still positive. The support is at 85.70, which can limit the disadvantage for now. The rupee can be further strengthened around 85.10-85 in the short term.
It is important to see if the rupee is making the resistance zone 85.00-84.90 crucial or not. If it does, then the rupee can rise to 84.60.
The price action around 85 will need close surveillance in the future.
Posted on April 19, 2025