China warned the countries against trade agreements on strike with the United States at the expense of Beijing, giving up their rhetoric in a commercial war between the two largest economies in the world.
Responding to the reports that suggest that the administration of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, is pressing other countries to isolate China, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said Monday that Beijing “will take countermeasures in a resolved and reciprocal manner” against the nations that are aligned with the United States against him.
The warning occurs when countries prepare for conversations with the United States to seek exemptions of “reciprocal” tariffs that Trump imposed and then stopped in about 60 commercial partners.
So what is this last verb about, how much influence is China in global trade and can Trump drive a widge among other capitals and beijing?
What is the backdrop?
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Trump was trying to use conversations to push American economic partners to stop trade with China and control Beijing’s manufacturing domain.
In return, these nations could ensure reductions in American taxes and commercial barriers. The Trump administration has said that it is in negotiations with more than 70 countries.
On Monday, the China Ministry of Commerce responded, warned other nations “looking for temporary selfish interests at the expense of the interests of others is to look for the skin of a tiger.” Indeed, he argued that trying to reach the agreements with the United States, the Tiger, they would be eating possible issues.
The Ministry also said that China would in turn would go to all countries that were in line with the pressure of the United States to hurt Beijing.
What is the state of trade between the United States and China?
After Trump suspended his “reciprocal tariffs” in the main US business partners on April 9, they were increased in China. The US commercial encumbrances. In most Chinese exports have increased to 145 percent. Beijing has retaliates with its own duties with 125 percent in US assets.
Trump has long accused China of exploiting the United States in commerce, saying their tariffs as necessary to revive national manufacturing and return jobs to the US.
For his part, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, traveled to three Southeast Asian countries last week to reinforce regional ties. He asked the commercial partners, including Vietnam, to oppose unilateral intimidation.
“There are no winners in commercial wars and rates,” XI said in an article published in the Vietnamese media, not to mention the United States.
As with other Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam has been caught in the crossfire of the Trade war. It is not just a manufacturing center itself, but China also frequently uses it to send exports to the US. To avoid tariffs imposed by the first Trump administration in Beijing in 2018.
In other places, the Trump administration has begun conversations with East Asia allies about tariffs with a Japanese delegation visiting Washington, DC, last week and South Korean officials who will arrive this week.
Many countries are now trapped between the two largest economies in the world: China, a large source of manufactured goods and a key trade partner, and the United States, a crucial export market.
How dependent is the world of Chinese exports?
In a report published in January by the Lowy Institute, a group of Sydney -based experts, analysts found that in 2023, about 70 percent of imported countries more than China than the United States.
The rapid rise of China as a commercial superpower dates back to 2001, the year in which the World Trade Organization (WTO) joined and when it begins to dominate global manufacturing after years of successful protectionist industrial policies.
Duration of the decade of 2000, China benefited from the relocation of international supply chains, turbocharged by substantial entries of foreign investment, large low -cost labor groups and an undervalued monetary exchange rate.
By 2023, China had become the largest commercial partner for at least 60 countries, almost double that for the United States, which remained the largest commercial partner for 33 economies.
The gap between them is also being spent in many countries: the Lowy Institute analysis found in 2023, 112 economies negotiated more than double with China than with the United States, compared to 92 in 2018, turning Trump’s first trade.
“The critical dependence that China has developed throughout the world, especially in Asia, means that lots [of trading partners] He cannot do without China, “said Alicia García-Herrero, an economist of the Natixis Investment Bank.”From critical minerals to silicon chips, Chinese exports are almost irreplaceable. “
Has World Trade be inclined more in favor of China since Trump’s last commercial war?
In 2018, two years after its first administration, Trump imposed tariffs of 15 percent in more than $ 125 billion in Chinese products, including footwear, smart watches and flat screen televisions.
Since then, the United States has become an even more important source of demand for non -Chinese exports, especially Mexico and Vietnam, which reflects the impact of years of US tariffs on China.
However, if Trump’s goal in part was to hurt Beijing, his first except failed.
Since 2018, many more nations have deepened their commercial relations with China, at the expense of the United States.
When China joined the WTO, more than 80 percent of the countries had more bidirectional trade with the United States than with China. That had fallen to only 30 percent for 2018, the year of Trump’s first tariffs about China, according to the Lowy Institute analysis.
That trend has only solidified since then: in 2018, 139 nations negotiated more with China than with the United States. By 2023, that number had increased to 145, and about 70 percent of world economies now trade more with China than with the US, compared to only 15 percent in 2001.
“Trump does not seem to understand how important the Chinese commercial flows have become,” García-Herrera told Al Jazeera. “In addition, it does not offer through carrots, as more investment, so I don’t think you get what you hear.”
Can countries allow China to alienate in commerce?
According to García-Herrero, some countries such as Mexico that have an indulum trade that is left with the United States, likely “will say no to Chinese imports.”
However, he stressed that “China’s presence in supply chains is so massive for most other business partners in the United States, decoupling is impossible virtual.”
In fact, throughout the world, China has become an invaluable source of imports. The European Union, for example, had a commercial deficit with China worth 396 billion euros ($ 432 billion) in 2022, compared to 145 billion euros ($ 165 billion) in 2016.
China represents 20 percent of EU goods imports. The equivalent figure in Great Britain is 10 percent. Last week, the Treasury Secretary, Rachel Reeves, said she would be “very dumb” for the United Kingdom to participate in less commerce with China.
Throughout the world in development, China’s commercial role is equally crucial. Approximately a quarter of the total imports of Bangladesh and Cambodia are from China. Almost a fifth of the imports of goods from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia comes from China.
“Trump’s commercial policy is mine,” said García-Herrero. “Trying trade with China can work in countries where the United States has military bases … They can have to accept the United States groups.”
“But for most countries, in part those in the global south, the more Trump threatens, the more countries will go on China.”