The International Monetary Fund has reviewed the Indian growth forecast for fiscal years 2025-26 and 2026-27 in 30 and 20 basic points, respectively, due to the increase in world commercial tensions. | Photo credit:
With the increase in global commercial tensions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced the growth prognosis for India during fiscal years 2025-26 (Fy26) and 2026-27 (Fy27) for 30 basic points, respectful. This is lower than the projection of global growth, where the fall is estimated at up to 50 basic points.
“For India, the growth perspective is relatively more stable with 6.2 percent in 2025 (fiscal year 2025-26), backed by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, but this rate is 0.3 percentage points lower than January 20, 2025 Weo update on account of the highest levels of commercial tensions and global concern,” said the IMF in its annual publication. “
In January, it had a projected growth rate of 6.5 percent for 26 and fiscal year 27. Now, growth is expected to be 6.2 percent for the current tax and 6.3 percent for the next fiscal year. The growth projection for the current prosecutor is less than the forecast of the Bank of the Reserve of India (RBI) or 6.5 percent announced earlier this month, reduced from 6.7 percent. However, it is similar to the forecast range of the lower band (6-3-6.8 percent) given by the economic survey.
Immediately after the president of the United States, Donald Trump, announced the reciprocal rate on April 2, several agencies reduced their projections. Morgan Stanley said he sees a downward or 30-60bps risk to his growth estimate or 6.5 percent for F26. Ey India feels that GDP growth can drop to 6 percent compared to the expectation of 6.5 percent in 2025-26 if India does not respond with adequate policies to neutralize this impact of warning.
Forecast for China, USA.
As the War rate focuses on the United States and China, growth in both economies is expected to see a deeper impact. For China, the IMF has reviewed the growth of 2025 GDP up to 4 percent from 4.6 percent in the January 2025 projection. “This reflects the impact of recent implemented rates, which compensate for the strongest transfer of 2024 (as results of a fourth most strong quarter quarter more strong) and fiscal expansion in the budget,” said the multilateral agency.
For the United States, growth is projected to decrease by 2025 to 1.8 percent, 1 percentage point lower than the rate by 2024, as well as 0.9 percentage points lower than the prognostic rate in the Weo update of January 2025. “The downward review is the result of greater political uncertainty, commercial tensions and a softer demand perspective, given a slower growth of consumption more He anticipated, “said the IMF.
Global growth forecast
For the global number, the IMF has used two references. “Our World Economic Outlook’s Reference Forecast Includes Tariff Announcements Between February 1 and April 4 By The Us and Countermeasures by other countries. Next, to Cumula and Next, to Cumula and Next, to Cumula and Next, to Cumulative, to Cumula and Next, Next, to cumula and then a. Percent points, to 3.2 percent for 2025 and 2026, “he said.
Posted on April 22, 2025