Water is essential for survival and human development, but it remains a source of tension and conflict, particularly where cross -border rivers serve multiple nations. Nowhere is this team more than in the Indo basin, which forms the backbone of agricultural, economic and ecological life for hundreds of millions in India and Pakistan.
The Treaty of the Indo’s waters, often celebrated as a cooperation model, is today under unprecedented tension due to the change in geopolitical dynamics, acute aquatic stress and the recent terrorist attack by Pahalgam in Kashmir.
At the time of the partition in 1947, the control over the Indo River system became a central dispute between India and Pakistan. The Indus basin consists of six main rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, all in the Himalayas and crossing both nations. The Water Treaty of the Indo (IWT), signed in 1960 by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in India and President Ayub Khan of Pakistan, is praised as one of the most durable and most effective international aldions in the world of the world.
Transmitted by the World Bank, it provides the waters of the Indo River system between and Pakistan, two nuclear neighbors armed with a history of conflict. For about six decades, the treaty has ensured the stability of water exchange even in the midst of wars and political struggles.
However, recent strategic, climatic and political developments, more markedly, the decision of India in early 2023 to seek modification of the treaty and the recent Pahalgam incident, threaten the continuity of the treaty. With both economies they depend largely on irrigation and water allocation became a point of inflammation.
The IWT allocated about 80 percent of the total waters of the Indo system (estimated of 168 billion cubic meters, BCM, per year) to Pakistan and 20 percent to India.
The three Western rivers (Indo, Jhelum, Chenab) with approximately 135 BCM were assigned to Pakistan, and India retained limited rights for irrigation, navigation and generation of hydroelectric energy; and the East Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) with approximately 33 BCM were assigned exclusively to India.
A permanent commission of the Indo (PIC) was established, which allows regular dialogue and dispute resolution. The World Bank is still a signatory, with the authority for facilitation arbitration. For Pakistan, the Indo system holds almost 90 percent of the country’s agricultural activity and supplies water to approximately 220 million people, representing more than 65 percent of the population and for India, the system is vital for approximately people and Jammir Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, who support agriculture, industry and urban areas.
In Pakistan, around 16 million hectares are watered by the Irrigation System of the Indo basin (the world’s largest adjacent irrigation system), which is the main source of stakes such as wheat, rice and cotton.
The resilience of the treaty is remarkable since three important wars have survived (1965, 1971, and the 1999 Kargil conflict) and numerous military crises, removing a strange and functional channel of communication and cooperation.
Ascending tensions
The 21st century has seen a hardening of India’s position on water exchange, driven by repeated cross -border security incidents, deteriorating bilateral relations and the revocation of the special status of Jammu & Kashmir by India in 2019.
At the beginning of 2023, in the context of URI 2016 and the attacks of pulwama 2019 and the current tensions, India invoked article XII of the IWT, issuing a notice to Pakistan and signing the intention of seeking the intention of the interaction of the information of the treaty.
Pahalgam’s attack has further graduated public feeling and political will in India with respect to Cooperation with Pakistan.
Indian policy formulators argue that the IWT, formulated more than 60 years ago, does not take into account current realities, such as population growth, climate change, hydrology change and new patterns of water use.
In addition, repeated delays and objections of Pakistan to Indian hydroelectric projects in Western rivers have created diplomatic bottlenecks and decelerated the infrastructure development of India.
Impact on Pakistan
Agricultural vulnerability: the agricultural sector of Pakistan, which uses almost half of its population, depends almost completely on the Indo and its tributaries.
Any reduction or alteration in water flows, especially crucial culture seasons, could damage food production, affecting main crops such as wheat and rice.
Hydroelectric and energy security: The hydroelectric energy of the Indo system is an integral part of the Pakistan energy network. Changes in upward water releases would affect the generation of energy in facilities such as Tarbela and Mangla, exacerbating the shortage of electricity and economic instability.
Environmental and social stress: decreased flows could accelerate desertification in Sindh and Punjab, intense salinity and erosion in the Delta del Indo, degrade ecosystems and trigger internal displacement due to the decrease in rural livelihoods.
Diplomatic isolation: With the growing diplomatic and economic weight of India, Pakistan can find more difficult to gather international support or ensure favorable arbitration results, especially as global attention changes to climatic and energy crises in other places.
Impact on India
Strategic levers: greater flexibility in the development of the Western rivers could be able to power the Indian states through the greatest irrigation and hydroelectric energy capacity, which is enhancing economic development in the border regions of the north.
International reputation: altering or suspending unilaterally the IWT runs the risk of damaging the image of India as an international response actor, potentially undermining other cross -border water agreements and drawing international censorship.
Environmental risks: The aggressive development of water infrastructure with bilateral coordination can increase sedimentation, alter the regimes of the Natural River and damage the fragile ecosystems of the Himalayas and Deltaic shared by both countertops.
The repercussions
The Treaty of the Water of the Indo stands out as a testimony of pragmatic diplomacy in a region prone to conflicts. The strategic location of the Indo basin in a populated region with nuclear weapons and definitely populated the risks of water conflict.
International law emphasizes the equitable and reasonable use of shared rivers. The dismantling of IWT (suspended now) could trigger legal disputes, military water management and establish a precedent for cross -border basins in Asia and beyond.
The consequences would be serious for the safety of water, food and energy of Pakistan, and would lead to significant risks for the development of India and international position.
Moreoover, climate change, manifested in erratic monzón patterns, withdrawal of glaciers and more frequent glaciers and floods, is the urgency of cooperative and adaptive water governance.
An IWT framework would make the joint responses to these shared challenges much more difficult. With more than 340 million people who depend directly on the indoor system, bets are extraordinarily high.
The writer is an independent researcher (Water Resources Management, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Resilience) and formally with Teri and NMDA
Posted on April 24, 2025