The collapse of democratic trust in the economy
The feeling of the consumer improved slightly at the end of April compared to preliminary reading at the beginning of the month. But in a much more important development, the feeling remains depressed, and The division between Democrats and Republicans It has reached historical levels, almost unimagated.
According to the latest survey of the University of Michigan, the final reading of the consumer’s feelings index stood at 52.2 in April, modernly from the figure of mid month, but remains the lowest in July 2022. Under the headline, under the headline, The political breakdown tells the true story: The feeling among the Democrats collapsed at 34.4, the lowest level ever registered for any partisan group in the history of the survey.
The Expectations Index for Democrats: demonstrates that they feel about the future, which is going to an amazing 22.7. The independents also saw a strong declineFalling to 46.2. Meanwhile, the feeling among the Republicans rose to 90.2, the highest since the last months of Donald Trump’s first mandate.
In shorts, Democrats have never led this pessimistic about the economyAnd Republicans have more confidence than in the leg in years.
This divergence is not just about politics. It is The future of the economy“And one side is going to be wrong.”
Or democratic fears are justified, and the economy really goes to problems, or republican trust is justified, and the current gloom is a massive reading of economic reality. ORPÍN Maybe both sides are out of base, And the economy only Murgh.
The feeling is not only weak; It divides violently along partisan lines. If the Democrats are right, the weakness of the current stock market is only the beginning of a much greater recession. If Republicans are right, the market offers one of the best purchase opportunities of the decade.
Bets could hardly be high.
Your financial advisor is calling
Anxiety is already beyond partisan surveys. Financial Advisors throughout the country Report that has been flooded with calls from worried customers. An advisor told Breitbart that the volume of concern now “eclipses everything we hear the duration of the covid.” The main brokerage houses are mobilizing their advisors to proactively call customers and reassure them, a rare movement outside the full -fledged financial crises. Panic is real, and is intense, as well as economic foundations, such employment growth and consumer spending remain relatively strong.
Merchants work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 22, 2025 in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Inflation expectations are another warning light that flashes red. Consumers now exposed to increase 6.5 percent over next yearThe highest reading since 1981. Around the next five years, expectations are up to 4.4 percent, the highest since 1991. The partisan gap is extraordinary: Democrats expect an eight percent inflation during the next year. Republicans expect only 0.4 percent. Independents fall almost exactly on the national average, waiting for inflation of 6.5 percent.
All these estimates will prove to be wrong. Inflation will not increase to eight percent in the next 12 months, regardless of how high the rates reach or how much of the import tariffs they pass consumers to consumers. Even independent estimate is too high. On the other hand of the currency, the Republicans are crazy when waiting for almost any inflation.
What really seems to be happening is that Consumers do not report their inflation expectations. Democrats really do not think that prices will increase eight percent in next year, and Republicans really do not think that inflation will fall almost zero. Even independents probably exaggerate where inflation expect next year. Instead of estimating prices, people are Use of the survey to register your support or opposition to Donald Trump and its commercial policies.
The director of the University of Michigan, Joanne Hsu, warned that consumer income expectations have been awakened significantly. Almost two thirds of respondents Now wait for it not rising during the next year. That seems realistic, given the fact that the Fed is fashionable to wait and see and is not close to historical minimums. It really is more likely to go down. More than two thirds expect their income adjusted by inflation to decrease, which is less likely but within the possible kingdom.
There is a bit of tension in the figures of expectations. If you do not get up and the economy to be as bad as Democrats think, it is difficult to imagine that workers require the child of increases that would be needed to boost eight percent inflation. Absent mass fiscal or monetary stimulus, Where will the inflationary impulse come from?? Remember: Tariffs are taxes. Raising them does not deliver to the son of impulse of spending power to consumers necessary to raise inflation to the highest levels in four decades.
Mohamed El-Erian, one of the most respected economists in the world, said the gap between soft data (such as feelings surveys) and hard data (such as work and spending) could reflect a delay in the transmission or Athad of consumption. In other words, people could now be spending precisely because they fear that prices will increase in the future. If that is true, it increases the risk that at the end of this year, Consumption could fall sharply, making the recession risks more acute.
There is another possibility – Survey data are delaying hard data. If the economy continues in performance, at least some of the fears expressed by companies and consumers about the future can lift. This would not be the first time in which the economy exceeded expectations.
We are at a crossroads. Or the fear too passionate, the Democratic voters will be pressed or the confidence among the Republicans will be claimed, and the current pessimism will look so One of the great lost opportunities to buy In an strengthening American economy.
The United States has not seen a partisan division about the economy so acute, or this consistency, in decades.