Cocoa prices increased almost 300 percent last year, making chocolate bars, Easter and cocoa eggs much more extent this year than the last one.
In the US, the retail prices of chocolate were a fifth higher on this Valentine’s Day compared to last year, according to Wells Fargo Bank. The price of a Reese’s Hearts chocolate bar of a real size of a real size was 13 percent higher in February 2024 than in the same month of the previous year.
Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, an Easter Easter Easter Twix increased from 5 to 6 pounds ($ 6.63 to $ 7.96) in Tesco Supermarkets in the period prior to Easter (year after year) and was reduced by size of 316 g). In total, the unit price increased by a whopping of 47 percent.
While the price of crude roasted cocoa beans, the key ingredient in chocolate has backed up at approximately 20 percent from all time in December 2024, consumers still pay record prices for chocolate.
The increase in the price of cocoa can be attributed to several factors. The main one is the extreme climate, which has reached cocoa producers in West Africa, from where most of the world import cocoa.
According to Amber Sawyer, an environmental energy and intelligence unit analyst (ECIU) (ECIU), exputive chocolate should not be a surprise.
“Chocolate is just one of the many foods that become more successful due to the extreme climate driven by climate change,” he said. “These extremes will continue to get worse.”
And prices could also.
What happened to the price of cocoa?
New York reference futures, used to exchange cocoa on a specific date and price, reached a maximum of $ 12,565 per metric ton in December 2024.
Last year’s scarce cocoa harvest led to a short supply shortage, since bad weather and diseases devastated crops in Ghana and Ivory Coast, where two thirds of the world’s cocoa grains are grown.
Crop scarcity was also observed in Nigeria and Indonesia, the third and fourth cocoa producers.
In total, there was a 500,000 -ton cocoa deficit or cocoa in global markets in 2024, which continues to maintain high prices.
The last cocoa harvest, which extended from October 2024 to March 2025, had a brilliant start, with 33 percent more beans reaching the ports of Ivory Coast compared to last year, said Commerzbank Carsten Fritsch analyst in a note to customers.
But while the price of New York cocoa futures is currently around $ 8,350 per ton, a significant fall from December, concerns are growing that the same dry climate that destroyed the harvest last year will take an equally.
Uncertainty is affecting chocolate producers. The Swiss chocolate manufacturer Barry Callebaut cut his annual sales forecasts on April 11 due to what he called “unprecedented volatility” in cocoa prices, which caused his actions to fall almost 20 percent larger than one day.
What is causing the increase in prices?
Climate
The volatile climate is an important factor. Western Africa experienced extreme rain in 2023, with a total precipitation more than double the average of 30 years in some places, while 2024 saw extreme heat and drought.
Many climatic scientists indicate the weather phenomenon of El Niño, which produces sea surface temperatures in the warmest average in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, as the main driver for volatile climatic patterns. However, they also expect a transition to the NINA pattern, the cooling of the surface of the ocean surface in the central and central-east equatorial Pacific, every three to five years to relive cocoa cocoa at least temporarily.
In fact, the International Cocoa Organization in February forecasts a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 megatonnes by 2024/25, the first surplus in four years. That partly explains the recent drop in the price.
But according to Felipe Pohlmann Gonzaga, a merchant of basic products based in Switzerland, the broader image of climate change will only worsen the supply groups “in the long term.
The scientists of the Central Climate Research Group published an article this year that shows that climate change committed cocoa trees duration of the harvest season in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Laws against deforestation
In addition to changing climatic t -shirts, several other problems are also promoting recent price increases in cocoa.
In Western Africa, new deforestation laws have prevented farmers from expanding cocoa plantations, keeping a member in the supply.
Western Africa is also dealing with a stock of aged trees. “Major trees are not being replaced,” said Pohlmann Gonzaga to Al Jazeera. “There has been a leg investment in the industry.”
Disease
At the same time, the propagation of the cocoa swollen outbreak virus (CSSV) has hit the crops. Tropical Research Services, a market research group, recently found that Ivory Coast Cocoa production could due to half of the propagation of CSSV.
Illegal gold mining
Meanwhile, Ghanaian cocoa farmers are abandoning beans for gold in an illegal mining boom that has reached Ghana’s cocoa production and helped increase prices.
In recent months, investors have been buying the precious metal to protect themselves from the agitation of the financial market unleashed by the Trump rates of the president of the United States, Donald Trump. On April 16, gold reached $ 3,357 per ounce for the first time.
As a result, many farmers are selling their holdings to illegal miners who have decimated land strips in the search or gold. Ghana is the main gold producer in Africa and the largest worldwide worldwide.
Will cocoa prices continue to increase?
“Tariffs have had an impact on the value of basic products, and cocoa is no exception,” says Pohlmann Gonzaga. “At first, I would think that commercial taxes would reduce cocoa demand in the United States, which is a great consumer.” The United States consumes the largest amount of chocolate in the world, thought that the Swiss label takes that label for the most per capita consumption.
“But if the consumption of the United States persists, that could increase prices. And, of course, Trump can reduce tariffs [on West African cocoa exporters] In the future, which would probably lead to greater demand. “
Pohlmann Gonzaga cited the growing demand for chocolate in East Asia. “We can be seeing a trend similar to coffee,” he said. China coffee consumption, for example, increased by more than 60 percent between 2019 and 2024.
In the short term, Pohlmann Gonzaga said that prices are likely to “have a side trend … since these factors can cancel each other. Volatility will be the word of order for this year.”
How have chocolate manufacturers responded?
Until now, producers have responded in one of two ways: by adjusting the high cost for consumers, or through promotion products with less cocoa or with substitute ingredients.
Last year, the Food Giant Nestlé introduced a flavor to the hazelnut in its British aerodynamic line or chocolate bars, which, with 36 g (1.3Oz), are approximately one third of the weight of the competitive chocolate bars.
In 2024, the agri -food giant Cargill associated with the producer of US chocolate alternatives. Uu. Voyage Foods, which creates cocoa no bars from grape seeds, sunflower flour and other flavors to be the company to company distributor.
In addition to large companies, startups such as Nukoko and Planet A are exploring microbial fermentation techniques to improve and imitate the aromas and taste of chocolate.
In other places, the Dubai chocolate was founded in 2022. Its products are full of pistachio and tahini and are inspired by Kunafa, the dessert of checkered and saccharin that is a basic element in the Middle East and North Africa. Since it reached the market, it has become a sensation of social networks.
If cocoa prices continue to increase, “it would expect to see more and more cocoa substitutions on supermarket shelves. The interesting question is whether consumer’s touches will change,” said Pohlmann Gonzaga.