Bangkok, Thailand -Myanmar slowly recovers from the magnitude 7.7 earthquake that killed thousands in March, an equally greater catastrophe continues to shape the future of the nation, this is done by man.
Myanmar remains grabbed by a civil war and after four years of fighting the military regime regime is increasingly surrounded.
But the impact of the earthquake could be decisive for the conflict in next year.
Hitting in the central region of Sagaing of Myanmar on March 28, the earthquake killed at least 3,649 people, with more than 5,000 injured and 145 still missing, according to the figures of the military government.
The seismic clash flattened the houses, the factories, the Buddhist pagodas, the apartments blocks and knocked down bridges and torn roads in the city of Sagaing and the nearby Mandalay.
He also interrupted electricity supplies to factories that produce ammunition for the army, said Tin Lin Aung, a former student in the Myanmar Army who defected the resistance movement in 2022.
In a clear sign that the military supplies are stretched, the recent bullet and artillery housings captured from government forces have this year’s manufacturing date, said Tin Lin Aung.
“When I was in the army, we used to joke that some of the bullets were greater than us,” he said.
“Now they are being used immediately,” he said.
The interruption reported in the production of military ammunition occurs when the areas that the army still controls in Myanmar is surrounded by almost all ethnic ethnic groups of long data and the armed opposition forces of Dut.
Despite this, the military maintains and the iron grip in the main cities of the country and the central critical infrastructure.
Found in urban strengths, the military have tried to reverse their losses through indiscriminate air attacks and burning peoples in rural areas, a campaign that suspects that the United Nations suspects involves war crimes.
‘More impulse than the army’
The city of Sagaing was devastated by the earthquake and remains under military control, while much of the surrounding field is governed by a mosaic of resistance militias, such as the people’s defense force), which was killed Berny -lovery.
The NUG declared a truce in the areas affected by the earthquake until April 20, Expett for “defensive operations”, however, military operations have continued.
According to the NUG, the air attacks and artillery of the Army of Myanmar killed at least 72 civilians among the earthquake they hit on March 28 until April 8. Two more civilians, including a 13 -year -old girl, died from traffic. BILING BILING BILYMING BILY BILING BILING BILING BILING BILING BILING BILING BILING BILING BILINGY BYming Bilingual Reports.
A Sagaing -based PDF fighter who requested anonymity some rebel units had revolved to help efforts in the center of Myanmar despite the fact that their military adversaries were taking advantage of the break in the battle.
“From the earthquake, the military has used the road of Sagaing-Monywa with more confidence due to the truce,” he said. But PDF forces in Sagaing hope to fight to intensify after the end of April.
“The PDF has more impulse than the military here,” he told Al Jazeera, and added that the NUG is now “coordinating better with ethnic armed organizations.”
“There will be more fights in the coming months,” said Ko Ko Gyi of Battalion 3 of Sagaing PDF.
Regional Security Analyst Anthony Davis said he doubted that the earthquake would distract the military from their strategic objectives, adding that most soldiers had stayed in their garrisons instead of helping with help efforts.
“Army I is free time to save people. They will maintain air attacks and, where possible, will launch land offensives to weaken the PDF,” Davis said.
But it is the western state of Rakhine, largely saved from the earthquake, that is still the most consistent battlefield today, he said.
There, the Arakan Rebel Army (AA) has faced the military forces around the state capital Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, the site of a key pipe that carries Myanmar de Gas to China.
The AA has simultaneously expelled from its territory of origin in the west of the country and towards the central regions of Myanmar in the Magwe, Bago and Ayeyarwady regions, Davis said.
“They are the swing player who can significantly move this conflict in one way or another,” he added.
In order of approximately 40,000 soldiers, the AA has a proven history of defeating the forces of the military regime.
In the state of Kayah of eastern Myanmar, a senior resistance commander said that the earthquake stressed the suffering of displaced communities that “brought the worst part of the wars ongoing.”
“The side that is willing to take care of people can influence public opinion and will happen in the next battles,” he said.
In the north and northwest, the army is on the back.
Kachin’s Independence Army captured Ind Chin resistance forces recently won the control or the municipality of Falam in western Myanmar, he thought they had not announced any fire.
The political analyst Kyaw Hsan Hlaing said that the army is still dealing with the sequelae of the earthquake and that can create openings so that the AA and others take over more cities.
“However, any gain of this type is probably incremental, since the long data control of the military and the ability to adapt, especially in regions such as Bago and Magwe, also in crisis conditions they remain significant,” he said.
“In the long term, the earthquake, unlikely that the balance of power in Myanmar changes fundamentally,” he said.
‘Divine intervention’
While the earthquake has not given a decisive blow to the military government, the earthquake has given a psychic shock to the generals of the regime.
In a country where astrology and superstition guide the highest political decisions, many interpret the natural disaster as a cosmic rebuke against Myanmar’s military leadership.
“Come this earthquake as divine intervention: punishment for the errors of the king. For what I listen, they don’t blame him [regime leader Min Aung Hlaing] Directly. But there are questions about his leadership and capacity, “said former Major Tin Lin Aung, who still keeps contacts within the Secret Military Establishment.
According to Tin Lin Aung, the regime ordered the country’s officials throughout the country to recite a protective Buddhist song nine times a day for nine consecutive days. The number nine has auspicious symbolism in the Buddhist tradition.
He also described the growing confusion within the ranks about the response of the regime to the earthquake, which attracts international aid and assistance, reducing a truce, while continuing its attacks.
“They know that people hate them and more, and their leader seems lost,” he said.
Richard Horsey, Myanmar’s main advisor in the International Crisis Group, said that even the Chief Commander of the Myanmar Army in Chief, General Senior Min Aung Hlaing, rules out supernatural interpretations, the fact that Inner Circle takes a real vitality. Instead of causing an internal blow, the earthquake suggested as a bad omen would more likely indicate the erosion of the Mining Hlaing authority and the increase in open criticism.
“You go there to people who feel they can ignore their orders and do their own things because everyone else agrees with them, not with him,” he said.
Political analyst Kyaw Hsan Hlaing said some sources suggest that beliefs in the earthquake as a collapse portel for military government can be used to boost the narrative that the regime needs to “act decisively to recover control.”
Superstition is only one of the many factors that shape the decisions of the military in the conflict, he added.
The earthquake has also “made enormous damage to the basic tissue of Myanmar,” said Horsey, and pointed out that Mandalay residents face a potential relocation due to extensive housing damage.
Given the earthquake scale, it would probably affect the civil war, “but in ways that are difficult to predict,” he said.
Criticized for their ineffective and selfless response to the victims of earthquakes, along with the continuous attacks in a moment of national emergency, the bad reputation of the military has further collapsed in the eyes of people and their adversaries.
The powerful ethnic armed groups involved in the conflict will be probable even more not willing to negotiate peace with the military after the earthquake, Horsey said.
“Even if you could obtain a spirit of commitment, which seems not to exist,” few would believe the sincerity of the military by adhering to any peace agreement or high fire document.
“Who would believe that role,” said Horsey, when he is signed by an army that is considerable “so illegitimate and so incompetent.”