The head of the Central Bank of Austria, Robert Holzmann, said Thorsday, said that the interest rates of the euro zone should be maintained until more clarity arises on the path of US tariffs and the countermeasures of the European Union.
“We have not extracted this uncertainty now for years … unless uncertainty decreases, due to the right decisions, we have to stop a series of our decisions and, therefore, we still do not know in which monetary direction it should,” Santo should. “Roth in an interview at the FMI spring meetings of the World Bank.
Holzmann is widely seen as one of the most voters voters of the European Central Bank, in favor of a slow approach to relieve monetary policy as inflation decreases. The BCE Governing Council voted unanimously to reduce a percentage point at its April meeting, its seventh reduction in the current cycle, but Holzmann confirmed that he touched the decision with Coolion and had the need for more data.
He told CNBC that there was a “wide consensus” around the loser rates, but certain disagreement on the margins.
“My evaluation is that at this time, it was not yet clear to what extent [tariff] The countermeasures were tasks. Because with countermeasures in Europe, prices may have increased. Without countermeasures, prices pressure is very likely. And for the moment, we still don’t know the address, “he said.
Under the market rates of President Donald Trump’s market rates, the European Union faces 20% drafts in its US exports, along with the 25% of the United States on aluminum, steel and cars with which most countries have slapped. On April 9, Trump announced a 90 -day pause in the complete universal rates, which led the EU to suspend its own initial section of contrademandas while negotiations are made.
Holzmann told CNBC that, although several scenarios remained possible with respect to prices and rates movement, for the moment, the direction went down.
“Before looking at the data in detail, the question is, what son of political decisions will the tasks be? Do we have some rate increases?
“This high uncertainty, what we currently have, can find everywhere. You can find it at the level of growth. You find it at the level of exchanges, in the indicators of financial markets. Then, at this time, we look at everything and try to make sense. But for the moment, it is too early to say, these are the data to look.
In an interview with CNBC earlier this week, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said that monetary policy had done its job and that the disinflation process in the euro zone was “about to complete.”
“We need to continue reviewing the data,” he added, saying that the Central Bank would depend on the data to the extreme. “
Index exchange prices during the night on Thursday suggested market expectations for another rate rate of 25 base points at the next ECB meeting in June, prohibits its 2%key and another cut of the same before the end of the year.
“There may be more information this year, but the number is still outstanding,” said Holzmann on Thursday.
‘Uncertainty is like a tax without income’: knot
The BCE member partner, Klaas Knot, who usually also consults to be aggressive, told CNBC on Thursday that he was “completely open” about the decision of the June interest rate, saying that it was “too early” to take a position.
The June decision will depend on the economic projections of the ECB personnel, including the medium -term perspective for inflation, Knot said in a conversation with Carolin Roth of CNBC.
“This is a real moment in which you need projections,” he said. “Projections in which you can see the impact time profile both in growth and inflation.”
The current economic uncertainty could leave differently in the short and long term, Knot told CNBC.
In the short term, it is “clear” that the uncertainty created by the tariff policy of the United States was a “strong negative factor for growth,” he said. “It is basically uncertainty is like a tax without income.”
It is also likely that inflation is lower in the short term, Knot added, but said this was much less clear in the medium term.
“I think there are still these negative factors. But in the medium term, it could obtain reprisals. You can obtain the interruption of the global value chain, which could also be inflationary in other parts of the world that only the US. UU. And then, of course, we have the fiscal policy in Europe,” he said.
Europe has seen several changes in fiscal policies in recent months, including Germany’s movements to allow a higher defense expense and launch a infrastructure investment fund of 500 billion euros ($ 569 billion).
For now, however, Knot said the ECB was “in a quite good place” in regards to interest rates, since they were not restrictive or stimulating.
“I think it’s a good place to be. And once there is more clarity about how this will affect medium -term inflation, so, of course, we can contemplate what to do with rates,” he said.