A kilogram of gold in the smelting of the ABC refinery, operated by Pallion, in Sydney, Australia, on Thursday, April 17, 2025.
Brendon Thorne | Bloomberg | Getty images
Gold prices have a tear in a tear with recently commercial agitation that leads investors to the safe refuge, while competitive assets such as US treasures. UU. And the dollar have fallen.
This is linked to the seismic change in the United States’s commercial policy under President Donald Trump, and Bullion has “entered the vacuum” as the market for sure market shelter, the director of Mining Research and Mining Comfort of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Vivek.
“What makes this recent flight to the safe demand of the port is so unique is that the US dollar and treasure bonds have been sold as a safe appeal of these assets in the United States has decreased,” Dhar added.
Gold prices have high legs and reached $ 3,500 per ounce on Tuesday, and more analysts predict that prices will join even more. JP Morgan hopes that the yellow metal will average $ 3,675 per ounce for the fourth quarter of 2025, and reach $ 4,000 for the second quarter of 2026.
Gold prices compared to dollar index futures in the last year
On the contrary, the US treasures have a sale in recent weeks, with the yield of 30 years heating the highest since November 2023 earlier this month. Meanwhile, the American dollar index has slipped and has woven 8% so far this year, according to LSE data.
Although the 30 -year treasure performance has won only 2 basic points so far this year, the increase within a week after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs was more than 30 basic points: the 10 -year reference yield also increased by 30 basic points. Meanwhile, Spot Gold prices have increased 25% so far this year, according to LSE data data.
Although the yields of the US treasure yields have been reduced from the maximum success earlier this month and the dollar has been marginally strengthened when Trump retreated in the comments that caused Avout to shoot the federal assets of Powelly Hans.
“Althegh this is far from being a story of ‘death of the US dollar’, it is fair to say that confidence in the United States, its economy and its main assets, the USD and the treasures, have decreased,” World Golden Council.
Because gold fever
The traditionally inverse relationship between treasure and gold yields seems to have broken down. Usually, when the yields are higher, the bullion becomes less attractive given the opportunity cost of having gold, since it does not pay interest.
The quality of gold inflation coverage makes it “special,” said Michael Ryan, professor at the School of Accounting, Finance and Economics at the University of Waikato.
Tariffs are expected to increase inflation in the US.
“Gold, however, is historically perceived as an inflation coverage, which can explain the preference for it that is perhaps the inflation coverage properties perceived with gold which are making it” special “,” he added.
Unlike government currencies or bonds, gold does not entail any credit risk and is not linked to the economic or political trajectory of a single nation.
Another factor for the breakdown of the traditional relationship between gold and treasurer would be the increasingly lower faith in the United States and the narrative of “American exceptionalism,” analysts told CNBC.
“There is a diminished confidence in the assets of the United States due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties,” said Soni Kumari, Anz basic products strategist.
The markets widely see Trump’s tariff war as a false politician, and the perceived Gold independence of any monetary and fiscal policy has promoted its appeal.
“Unlike government currencies or bonds, gold does not entail any credit risk and is not linked to the economic or political trajectory of a single nation,” said Alexander Zumpfe, merchant of precious senior metals in Heraeo. This is especially pertinent at the time when trust in traditional financial instruments is hesitating.
In addition, the opaque attractiveness of the US dollar is added to Gold. A Waker dollar generally causes the products to be fixed on the green back, including gold, more attractive to holders or other currencies.
Impulse of diversity
The central banks of the emerging market, which have had low gold weight compared to their developed market homologous
The new dollar has caused discussions about a global unfolding, questioning the attractiveness of The Greenback as the world’s reserve currency.
Gold has been floated as a possible alternative main reserve currency several times.
“Countries realized that gold was a potential coverage against US freezing currencies. UU. For non -alignment with US politics,” said Dhar de CBA.
While the sale of dollars has been beneficial for gold, Dhar said, it is still difficult to see a future with a material change away from the green back, given the golden transport and storage costs that also does not pay the assets of Esits Equits Esits.
In addition, although there has been a bit of rehabilitation of the state of safe treasure refuge in the United States, it is still “really difficult” replacing what the “most liquid market in the world is,” Franklin Investors said.
The replacement of the US treasures. As a sure port it does not happen in the short term, since we change a more multipolar world, he said.