Rates are raising important winds against the US economies. UU. And global, which leads to the International Monetary Fund to reduce its 2025 growth forecast.
The implementation of April 2 of President Donald Trump or the “reciprocal” rates have not only shaken the actions, the S&P 500 It has dropped 9% since the taxes were launched, but they have also triggered the countermeasures of other commercial partners.
“This is only a great negative shock for growth,” said the IMF in the executive summary of its world economic perspective in April 2025.
This new perspective includes a “reference forecast” for global economic growth and inflation, based on AV data for April 4, including reciprocal rates, but excluding subsequent developments such as 90 -day pause and exemption and exemption shared in January.
In its new projections, the IMF now requires a growth perspective of the United States or 1.8% in 2025, 0.9 percentage points of its January forecast.
In addition to commercial policy pressures, the IMF’s main economist, Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, added that the consumer confidence and consumption indicators were also billed in their downward review.
While he is not yet asking for a recession in the United States, Gourinchas tolerated journalists on Tuesday that the IMF now sees recession at 40%, compared to 25% in October 2024.
The IMF also reduced its global growth forecast to 2.8% in 2025, a lower percentage point of view since its previous estimate.
“The announcement of the Rose garden of April 2 forced us to get rid of our projections, almost completed at that time, and compress a production cycle that has been common for more than two months in less than 10 days,” Gourinchas wrote in the April report.
“The common denominator … is that tariffs are a negative offer shock for the economy that imposes them,” he said.
Higher inflation forecasts for advanced economies
The IMF also reviewed its main inflation expectations for advanced economies, including the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, to 2.5% by 2025, which reflects an increase or 0.4 percentage points from the January projection.
The United States inflation perspective was also reviewed more than 3%, a higher percentage point from the initial projection in January.
“For the United States, this reflects the stubborn price dynamics in the service sector, as well as a recent increase in the growth of central goods (excluding food and energy) and the supply shock of recent rates,” the IMF said in the April report.
The increase in inflation for the main economies was compensated by downward reviews in certain emerging markets and developing economies.
The extent to which the levies press the efforts of the central banks to reduce inflation is contingent “about whether tariffs are perceived to be temporary or permanent,” according to the IMF report.
The previous episodes of market volatility have led to the strengthening of the US dollar in relation to other countries, creating an upward inflationary pressure in other countries. However, the dollar has reversed this trend in the middle of the recent market sale.
“The effect of rates on exchange rates is not simple,” according to Gourinchas. “In the medium term, the dollar can be depreciated in real terms if tariffs translate into lower productivity in the US trade sector, in relation to its commercial partners.”
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