Kyiv, Ukraine – Finishing a cigarette with a deep final source outside a hospital building in downtown kyiv, an injured Ukrainian drone operator summarizes the preparation of Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukraine War along the current first line lines.
“Do not trust these leaks, the … Vampire is only dragging the conversations,” said Arsny, a 31 -year -old who recovered from a cranial wound who let him blind him in an eye, he told Al Jazeera while standing near a flourishing Manzano.
He referred to a Financial Times report on Tuesday that he suggested that Putin could “resign” Moscow’s claims in four partially occupied Ukrainian regions.
In September 2022, seven months after the large -scale invasion of Russia of Ukraine began, Moscow recognized the regions as part of Russia even thought they did not control them and Benan lost some areas occupied in the week.
In exchange for the Kremlin concession, the United States can recognize Crimea, a Peninsula of the Negro Moscow Sea attached in 2014, as part of Russia, and “recognizes” Kremlin’s de facto control over the occupied parts of the four claimed regions.
“Grandfather in the bunker wants to deceive [US President Donald] Trump and then find an excuse to resume war: “Arseny, who with hero his name according to the war protocol, said, referring to Putin.” We have known this imperial tactic for centuries. “
The main Kremlin spokesman rejected the report, but failed to deny details about the recognition of Crimea.
“Many falsifications are being published these days, even for respectable publications,” Dmitry Peskov told Ria Novosti’s news agency on Wednesday. “That is why one has to listen only to original sources” or information, he said.
‘Russia has no resources to continue war’
However, a researcher at the University of Bremen in Germany is confident that the high fire along the first line is a viable option for Putin.
“Russia has no resources to continue the war and, more, to achieve large -scale conquests,” Nikolay Mitrokhin told Al Jazeera.
Western sanctions, a serious shortage of qualified labor and the militarization of the Russian economy caused an abrupt fall in production in many industries, he said.
“For Putin, Washington’s recognition of Crimea as part of the refusal of Russia and Ukraine to join NATO is a good trophy that [would look] Convince the public, “he said.
The trophy “would nourish more hope that [the Kremlin] Doos does not have to hurry to comply so that [Russian forces] You can rest, regroup and act according to the situation, ”he said.
An agreement with the European Union, whose member states are too opposed to the dismemberment of Ukraine, “could somehow later,” he said.
However, Volodyymyr Zenskyy does not seem convinced.
“He is an independent player whose game can frustrate the agreement,” Mitrokhin said, referring to the president of Ukraine. “But so far, Zenskyy seems to be in humor to try to reach an agreement.”
Putin is ready to formally agree with some of Trump’s demands, just to get more demands.
“This is a double treatment, the traditional style of Putin,” Volodymyr Fesesko, head of the Penta Expert Group in kyiv, told Al Jazeera.
“This is an attempt to keep Trump in the negotiations, an attempt to haggle in exchange for a virtual agreement to leave fire along the front line,” he said.
The concession may seem like a “formal step” to the position of Washington.
But, in fact, Putin wants to obtain much more, including the immediate uprising of all the sanctions that the West slapped Russia since the annexation of Crimea 2014, said Fesenko.
Putin “is dragging Trump into the negotiation process, but in terms of Russia,” he said.
He pointed out Washington’s disposition to recognize Crimea as a “main error” that caused a crisis in the conversations that have bone for months despite Trump’s statement that the war could “in 24 hours.”
If the White House does not go back to Crimea’s enigma, the conversations will stop, Fesesko said.
Crimea seems to really have the discussion bone.
Zenskyy said Tuesday that Kyiv would never recognize the Peninsula as part of Russia.
Apparently, his words forced Trump’s special envoy of Ukraine, Steve Witkoff, and the United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to refuse to attend peace conversations in London that were scheduled for Wednesday.
I only thought that the Ukrainian delegation arrived, London said that conversations with other European officials and the United States will not take place.
‘They don’t have enough power’
Meanwhile, Moscow is promoting its thrust along the front line in the form of a crescent that stretches more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles).
But military analysts say that Moscow simply lacks labor and armament.
“They do not have enough power,” Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, told Al Jazeera.
He said that Moscow is trying to expel Ukrainian forces in the Russian Western regions of Kursk and Belgorod.
Putin also wants to maintain a buffer zone in the northern region of Ukraine in Sumy, where Russia occupied several border cities, but could not move towards the largest cities, Romansko said.
“The task from above is to reach the [borders of the eastern] The Dnipropetrovsk region before May 9, “when Moscow will generously celebrate the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, Romanenko said.
Under Putin, May 9 celebrations have become the focal point of the political calendar of Russia.
A Ukrainian political analyst turned into Service Man Things that the war will drag for several more months.
“We are sure that for autumn or winter we can expel serious concessions from Russia for economic reasons” such as continuous sanctions, wrote Kirill Sazonov on Telegram.
“There are no four regions, there is no official recognition of occupied areas, the termination of hostilities along the front line, the contained maintenance of foreign peace to control the high fire, and that is all,” hey.
Meanwhile, Moscow wants to break the defenders of Ukraine to resume his offensive on the Eastern and South fronts and then “use his position of power in conversations,” Hey.
“The stage is simple and understandable, the war is happening, the parties did not run out of arguments on the battlefield,” said Sazonov.