Russia’s Kremlin says it would suffer from a global trade war

Russia escaped unscathed from the commercial tariffs of President Donald Trump presented earlier this month, but the Kremlin says that Moscow is not immune to the economic replicas that could arise in a possible global commercial war.

“Or the course, instability in the global economy cannot fail to affect Russia,” Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov, CNBC on Wednesday on Wednesday, according to a Google translation.

“At the same time, we managed to maintain macroconomic stability against numerous sanctions,” Peskov added in comments sent by email.

Unlike many Americans who were beaten with commercial tariffs in Trump’s early announcement in April, Russia was saved from new import tariffs when Trump announced his list of new tariffs to be imported in imports from the Thane UpadterdingMed corridor than the terminal field.

Russia was left out, the White House Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, told the average axios outlet, because the United States sanctions the country for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has already prevented “any significant trade” that the two nations bimulate.

Analysts question that statement, saying that Russia still exchanged more with the United States than in other countries that reached the list of rates, such as Brunei and Mauricio. Ukraine, by the way, was beaten with a 10%rate.

A White House official told CNBC on Thursday that Russia, along with Cuba, Belarus and North Korea, “were not subject to the executive order of reciprocal rates because they already face extremely high rates and our previously imposed sanctions exclude any significant trade with this country.” The official recently added that he also recently threatened to impose strong sanctions on the sanctions on the Russian.

The turbulence of the global market led Trump to temporarily reduce rates of rates in imports from most countries, except China, 10% for 90 days. If negotiations that take place with several commercial partners in the interim can lead to a commitment and, ultimately, trade agreements are very uncertain.

Russia’s reaction to Trump’s commercial duties has been mixed, with state media observing the measures and consequences of the market with a mixture of cold detachment, some concern for global economic volatility and a touch of Schadenfreude in the turbulence that hits the West.

The destabilization of Trump of the “World World Order” led by the United States, which Moscow would like to dismantle, also a potential benefit of tariffs to Kremlin, analysts say. They warn that Russia is not immune to the impact of any commercial war.

“On the surface you see many laughs and genuine relief [in Russia] That, for once, it is not Russia that is at the center of attention, “said Anton Barbashin, Russian political analyst and editorial director of Riddle Magazine, CNBC on Wednesday, and said that” Russia was better positioned. “

“Russia moves an USA. Less that she is dedicated to a permanent conflict with China (designed not war), so Washington does not have enough time for Europe,” he said in comments sent by email.

Barbehin said that two schools of thought had emerged in Russia, one that recognizes the damage that a commercial war could to the country, and the other recognizing that the woven economy to geopolitical Russia this

“Russia is a Still Headendent on Global Economy and High Demand for Her Exports. If a Global Recession is to follow [Trump] Give to damage the transatlantic relationship, easier it would be for Moscow to divide Europe into issues related to Ukraine, “Barbashin said.

Russia analysts have questioned why Russia was not subjected to any tariff, and if their exclusion could be part of a White House plan to try to obtain influence on Moscow in any peace conversation in Ukraine.

“The White House said Russia was not beaten with tariffs because there was no trade between the two countries due to western sanctions … That is not entirely true,” said Alexander Kolyand, the main member of the European Policies Analysis Center.

Exports of Russian goods to the United States totaled a minimum of 30 years of around $ 3 billion in 2024, and the United States exported $ 526 million in goods to Russia during the period, he said.

“These are small numbers when it comes to the general trade of the United States, but, for example, Lesotho, an African kingdom with a population or 2 million, also sells less to the US., Around $ 2 billion in goods per year, but was beaten with a 50%tariff,

According to the formula used to determine the tariffs of the commercial partners, Russia should have faced a 40%rate, based on the numbers of 2024. Kolyand pointed out, however, that in the years prior to the war, Russia and the United States have enjoyed a relatively balanced trade, which means that Russia hit the 10%basal rate rate in its place.

Kolyand told CNBC on Thursday that if there is a desire in the White House to use rates as a way to induce Moscow to peace negotiations about Ukraine, “then it’s a hoax.”

“Size [of trade] It is very small, and just before the war, the United States was not the important commercial partner of Russia compared to places such as the European Union, Türkiye, China or India. “

“Russia needs some technological things in the United States, such as spare parts for Boeing (airplanes]for example and separated from tungsten and titanium, Russia has very little to sacrifice the United States, which donkey is not elastic, which is not the brain. Think that commercial rates are something that Moscow can be seduced with the war stop.”

The World Trade Organization warned Wednesday that the prospects for global trade have “abruptly deteriorated” following the Trump rate regime.

Based on the duties currently in force, and including a 90 -day suspension of “reciprocal rates”, the volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to decrease by 0.2% in 2025, the WTO said. He added that global economic growth would receive a direct blow from a decrease in global commercial volumes.

Even if Russia is not a direct objective, it will surely suffer collateral damage due to tariffs and a possible commercial war, analysts agree, with a decrease in prices and demand for the main supply supplies of overall oil export of Russia that publish a great economic risk.

Russia is already working under significantly domestic inflation, which reached 10.3% per year in March, and the Central Bank of the country has maintained high interest rates of 21% recently in an attempt to deal with the pricing pressures led by war.

“If the commercial war pushes the global economy to a recession, and especially if the general trade decreases, which means that it means less intertwined goods the Gobe, which Wolde means that the demand for oil will also decrease if there is a recession, and it is painful

“But Russia’s problems do not end with oil. With global instability and an increase in inflation and, presumably, a decrease in oil revenues, the Central Bank of Russia will find devices to begin to relieve its base rate. It is the bass that the Russian national economy has to borrow 21%.